BJP’s Sunrise in Odisha Is BJD losing ground in Odisha? Panchayat elections suggest this trend
BY SUDARSHAN CHHOTORAY
The unprecedented electoral
victory of BJP in Odisha’s local body elections has changed the
political equation in the state. BJP has become the No 2, political
force in Odisha, replacing the grand old party of the country, the
Congress, which till recently was the main opposition party in the
state. Not only this, for the first time after 17 years, it has posed a
formidable challenge to Naveen Patnaik-led BJD party and its government.
Naveen Patnaik, who is continuing in his fourth term as a Chief
Minister, has never faced such electoral debacle as he is witnessing
today in just concluded three-tier panchayati raj elections. Though BJD
has maintained its No. 1 status by winning maximum number of seats in
zilla parishad, it has lost more than 180 seats in comparison 2012
panchayat elections. The trends of this election show that ruling BJD is
slowly losing ground. Except its predominant position in coastal areas
of the state, Naveen has suffered a severe setback in western Odisha
districts and in south and north Odisha districts. While BJD has been
able to form zilla parishads in 16 out of 30 districts (in 2012 it had
formed zilla parishads in 28 districts), BJP has got majority in 8
districts ( earlier it had none) and Congress has won only one district
(it had 2 in 2012) but has become single largest party in two other
districts.
According to the latest figures– out of
849 (853) seats BJD has won 473 seats, BJP 297, INC 60 and others 16
including independents, CPI, CPI (M) and JMM. Results of four seats are
yet to be declared. During 2012 panchayat elections, of the 854 total
zilla parishad seats barring 3 vacant seats, polling was held for 851
seats of which BJD got 651 seats, INC candidates won in 128 seats and
BJP had only 36 seats besides JMM 11, CPI 2, CPI (M) 1 and Independents
in 22 seats.
This time pre-poll and post-poll
violence took ugly turn with killing of politically opponents increased
to more than five cases besides the regular incidents of house burning,
group clash etc. In most of cases both BJP and Congress alleged the
involvement of ruling BJD workers.
This time polling was conducted for 853
zilla parishad seats, 6801 seats in panchayat samitis, 6802 sarapanch
seats, 92029 ward members. Of these elections for only zilla parishad
seats were conducted on party symbols and all others were on independent
basis. Fifty per cent seats have been reserved for women and on
population basis posts are reserved for women, OBC, ST and SC
candidates. In 5th scheduled areas main posts are reserved for only ST
candidates.
“We have never seen such violent clashes
like this time and blatant use of money and muscle power”, said
Panchanan Kanungo, former minister of state for finance and former BJD
leader.
“Panchayat elections are increasingly
becoming important for political parties and people are running shows at
grassroots level because of varied reasons. One of the aspects is the
elected representatives are becoming the main link between people and
MLAs & MPs of the area. Secondly, more and more money is being
pumped into rural areas through different state and central government
schemes like MGNREGAs,” added Mr Kanungo.
For a party that was long-ridiculed as
the ‘signboard party’ in Odisha, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
congratulatory message at an election rally at Kannauj recently must
have come as music to BJP leaders in the state. Had it not been the
unexpected success of the party in the first two phases of the panchayat
elections, Modi would perhaps never have thought of Odisha in the midst
of an election rally in Uttar Pradesh.
Amidst all these, the rise of BJP in
panchayat polls has delivered a severe blow to both BJD and Congress in
the state. On the one hand, where BJP has encashed Odisha election
success to influence voters in UP and celebrated Vijaya Divas across the
state on February 25th only to galvanize the party rank and file for
the bigger battle of 2019 assembly and general elections. On the other
hand, BJD has accused BJP of creating unnecessary hype of a small
victory which has nothing to do with popular support enjoyed by Naveen
Patnaik and BJD party. BJD-BJP bickering took ugly turn when on February
24, 2017 Prime Minister dubbed Odisha a state of poverty,
unemployment, starvation deaths in his election rally in UP and
Dharmendra Pradhan accused Odisha Government of non-functioning, being
anti-people and of its all round failure through conducting a press
conference in National Capital, New Delhi along with Union Cabinet
Minister Jual Oram and State Party Prabhari Aruna Singh. BJD was quick
in responding to the allegations of BJP. A media conference conducted at
party headquarters in Bhubaneswar addressed by two junior ministers
Sanjay Das Burma and Arun Sahu along with Member of Parliament Pinaki
Mishra turned down BJP’s allegations and claimed BJD is still number
one, people of the state have reposed their faith in Naveen Patnaik’s
leadership and BJD party. “If seeing this small victory, BJP is dreaming
to form the government in the state in 2019, it will be kind of day
dream,” said Das Burma.
BJP, which had been alliance partner of
BJD for nine years from 2000 to 2009, was desperately trying to make
its presence felt in all the districts organisationally after Naveen
snapped its tie unilaterally just days before 2009 elections citing and
blaming its alliance partner BJP for Kandhamal communal violence. Since
then both parties were in loggerheads and BJP was after Naveen’s head
continuously highlighting Naveen’s failure on different fronts. BJP got
boost when NDA came to power under Narendra Modi’s leadership in 2014
with absolute majority. Though, BJP was going soft with Naveen on the
run up to 2014 elections and even after that, but 2016 was the turning
point for the party when Prime Minister visited the state three times
within a year and party president Amit Shah twice in two years. Besides
these, Union Minister of State for Petroleum & Natural Gas
Dharmendra Pradhan’s frequent visits to state boosted the party workers
morale and revived its lost ground. Apart from these, despite winning a
single parliamentary seat of Sundargarh out of 21, during the 2014
general elections, Modi inducted Jual Oram as Union Cabinet Minister for
Tribal Affairs and Dharmendra Pradhan as Minister of State with
Independent Charge even though he was not elected from Odisha.
Dharmendra Pradhan is the Rajya Sabha Member from Bihar.
The much-hyped Amit Shah’s Odisha visit
in 2015 had proved a damp squib following his non-utterance of a single
word against Naveen Patnaik, though party’s rank and file were all
against Naveen’s alleged misrule and his involvement in chit fund scam.
However, his second visit to the state on November 25 last year had
energised party workers, where he had called party workers to overthrow
this corrupt regime.
Interestingly, Prime Minister Narendra
Modi has acknowledged and raised Odisha local polls victory at two
public meetings in Kanauj and Gonda during Uttar Pradesh election
campaign to woo voters. Though his Kanauj meeting speech was to thank
rural voters of Odisha, his Gonda speech of 24th February created a
fresh controversy following his description of poverty and starvation
deaths. Prime Minister in his speech said, “You will find India’s
poorest and poverty stricken districts in Odisha. The state is known for
unemployment, poverty and starvation deaths, but now Odisha’s poor
people are with BJP, as they have reposed their faith in us.”
Modi’s
statement received strong reaction from the state. Both BJD and
Congress reacted sharply within assembly and outside and said Modi must
apologize for this statement, which has offended the state and its
people. Even BJD legislators staged a dharana under Mahatma Gandhi’s
statue. BJP, on the other hand, has supported Modi’s statement and
questioned — Is it not the reality that children are dying due to
malnutrition in Nagada village and Japanese encephalitis in Malkangiri?
Has Dana Majhi not carried his wife’s dead body as hospital in Kalahandi
denied ambulance to him? Is it not a shame for the state, when its
Chief Minister after having ruled the state for 17 long years is not
able to speak state’s official language?
BJP’s victory is being attributed to the
frequent visits of Dharmendra Pradhan to the state and support to
Modi’s demonetisation drive, besides failure of BJD government on many
fronts.
While speaking to this correspondent,
Sajjan Sharma, chief spokesperson of BJP ruled it out as small victory.
“It is the outcome of our two and half year’s continuous campaign in
popularising and taking it to people Narendra Modi government’s
pro-people policies and schemes and exposing the unjust, crippled,
immature and non-functioning Naveen Patnaik government in the state,”
said Sharma. He further added Congress had already lost before the
election process started. People reposed their faith in us.
BJD, on the other hand has claimed its
vote percentage is intact. It had polled 42 per cent votes in last
elections and won 60 per cent of seats. Congress which had polled 29 per
cent votes lost at least 15 per cent to BJP, argued a BJD leader.
Speaking to Uday India, BJD
vice-president Surya Narayan Patra said because of transfer of votes
from Congress’ traditional base to BJP candidates BJP’s seats has
increased and so is the percentage of vote share from 29 per cent to
more than 35 per cent.
To a question on BJD losing ground
Patra said that BJP was in second position in Sambalpur, Bolangir,
Bargarh, Kalahandi, Malkangiri and Mayurbhanj and the winning margin was
very less in last general elections and much before that during 2009
these districts were Congress parties traditional bastion. BJD had won
only in last elections. So there is no reason for celebration for BJP.
“Neither Naveen Patnaik’s image dented
nor Narendra Mod’s image appreciated. This is a temporary setback and we
will be able to revive our organisation within course of time. So there
is nothing to worry,” added Patra.
When asked whether Congress leaders
conceded the defeat by blaming it to the indecisiveness of high command
and incapable state leadership. “Due to weak organization, ever
deepening factionalism and shortage of money, we have suffered a
severe debacle,” said Ganeswar Behera,
former minister and a senior Congress leader. “We could have revived
the organisation and our lost fortune, if the high command had taken a
right decision in right time and learnt lessons from past mistakes,”
added Behera.
According to political observers this
election was a litmus test for the ruling BJD in the run up to 2019
general elections for both the state assembly and Parliament. It was
treated as the semifinal as more than 2.6 crore voters out of 3 crorers
were participating in the elections.
The alleged involvement of Chief
Minister’s office in multi-thousand crore chit fund scam, involvement of
BJD MPs, MLAs, leaders and bureaucrats at top level where at least two
million people have been duped to the tunes of thousand crores, Shah
Commission’s inquiry into the multimillion crores mining scam,
government land grabbing by rich and people, multi crore dal scam,
suicide of farmers, increasing atrocities aganist women, killing of
innocent tribals in the name of Maoists, large scale corruption in
distribution of ration cards, alleged molestation of women in the name
of Chief Minister’s security, alleged sexual escapade of Bhubaneswar
mayor and all-round failure of the government in controlling law and
order in the state etc. are some of issues that went against BJD’s poll
prospects, says political observers.
Naveen, who had survived during last 17
years’ elections after elections, got a body blow this time and
Congress lost its traditional and predominant voter base of KBK and
tribal districts in which 50 per cent seats have gone to BJP.
Interestingly, this time BJD had engaged
a galaxy of leading artists from Odia film industry to woo voters; they
had fanned across the state. “They had succeeded to pull crowds rather
than votes,” said Sabar Tarai, a scribe with a vernacular daily, based
in Ganjam district. Naveen Patnaik’s absence in electioneering also
helped the opposition especially BJP to spearhead its campaign strategy.
BJP, which still was maintaining guarded silence on Naveen’s misdeeds
up to 2015, geared up its anti-Naveen rants after Bihar, West Bengal and
Assam elections when both Modi and Amit Shah felt Odisha should be next
state after Assam to realise its presence in eastern India. That is
ostensibly the reason both Amit Shah and Modi paid frequent visits to
the state.
Another aspect of BJP’s victory could be
the Naveen’s dilly-dallying attitude and indecisiveness towards the
Centre, said a political observer. On the one hand, Naveen Patnaik is
blaming everything on Centre and raising the slogan of central
negligence, on the other, he supported demonetization and remained
silent on many national issues. Both Congress and BJP are still
critical of Naveen’s handling of Mahanadi issue. When the state
government has nothing to hide, why it remained silent on repeated
reminders of the Centre and Central Water Commission, alleged BJP. Even
Naveen could not respond to the statement of Chhattisgarh CM when he was
blaming here to the failure of Odisha government during electioneering,
asked an activist working on water rights in Mahandi basin.
by Sudarshan Chhotoray
from Bhubaneswar
http://udayindia.in/2017/03/07/bjps-sunrise-in-odisha-is-bjd-losing-ground-in-odisha-panchayat-elections-suggest-this-trend/